Zach Greinke and a Look at ERA History

So, the hype train on Zach Greinke is officially threatening to spiral out-of-control. But can you blame anyone? I thought his stats were off the hook a few weeks ago, and they’re only getting filthier. And since the blogosphere often skews towards hyperbole, Greinke’s performance to date got us to thinking about ERA.

Sure, folks can talk about best pitcher in baseball, All-Star game starter and Cy Young awards. We’re more interested in really reaching and irresponsibly bringing up the notion of historical ERA. Trust us, if Carlos Beltran and Kevin Youkilis keep lingering near the .400 batting average it won’t be too long until people start bringing up Teddy Williams.

Bob Gibson boasts the lowest single ERA within the span, and ranks fourth on the all-time list having posted a 1.12 ERA in 1968.

Doc Gooden is next on the list (#42 overall) for his performance in 1985. Now, granted, I’m an unabashed Mets diehard and always had a soft spot in my heart for Dr. K. However, looking back at Gooden’s 1985 campaign, I’m reminded of just how absurd it is. Consider this…in addition to his 1.53 ERA, Doc went 24-4 that season leading the league in that category as well as strikeouts (268), innings (276.2) and complete games (16!). One might point to the last two as early indicators of future problems, but still. Oh yes, he was 20 years old in ’85.

Speaking of ridiculous, sometimes it takes a trip through statsville to remind you just how dominant a particular player was – especially when it’s someone as generally “low profile” as Greg Maddux. Maddux can lay claim to two seasons in the top 100 for lowest ERA. In 1994, he threw up a 1.56 followed by a 1.63 in ’95. Not a bad back-to-back. Actually, Maddux also led the NL in 1993 making for a pretty dominant three-year stretch.

Sandy Koufax is the other hurler who holds two of the top 100 spots for best single-season ERA during the past 50 years doing so with ERAs of 1.74 and 1.73 during the 1964 and 1966 seasons respectively.

Outside of Doc, Gibson, Maddux and Sandy, the other top 100 single-season ERAs from the past 50 years belong to Luis Tiant (1968, 1.60), Dean Chance (1964, 1.65) and Nolan Ryan (1981, 1.69) at age 34.

So, what does it all mean? Absolutely nothing. Should Greinke double his ERA over the course of the rest of the season, he’d have the lowest ERA in baseball history – forget the last fifty years. Should it triple, he’d be be just a bit behind Gibson’s mark from 1968. Chances are, none of these things will happen. Still, it’s always fun to imagine “what if?” And, right now, Zach Greinke’s “what if’s” are sky high (and low).